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Climate change adaptation

May 23, 2025

Climate change adaptation

The increase in GHG concentration contributes to the rise in the planet’s average global temperature, which in turn leads to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns across regions over future time periods. This effect is known as climate change and will increasingly impact various systems (human, natural, and productive). As a result, it is essential to adapt to this new climatic dynamic. 

Climate Horizons

Ecopetrol has identified climate‑related risks and opportunities (both physical and transition), as well as their potential impacts and benefits across the following time horizons: 

Short term (to 2030)

 

The shortterm horizon is used to assess dependencies, impacts, risks, and opportunities in alignment with the company’s climatechange roadmap. This horizon includes: 
i) setting and achieving annual GHG emissionsreduction targets; ii) identifying shortterm risks and defining mitigation measures, controls, and Key Risk Indicators (KRIs); and iii) identifying and implementing costeffective opportunities that contribute to the company’s climate ambition. 

Medium term (to 2036)

The medium‑term horizon is used to identify emerging risks that may affect the company over the next five or more years and to assess the portfolio of diversification opportunities. 

Long term (2037+)

The long‑term horizon is used to analyze market trends, policy and regulatory changes, and emerging technological developments that could influence the company’s climate ambition and its long‑term business strategy. 

 

Physical risks and adaptation

 

Physical risks

hysical risks associated with climate change can trigger acute events or lead to long‑term chronic shifts in climate patterns. These risks may result in financial impacts for the company, including direct damage to assets or indirect effects caused by disruptions in the production chain. 

Ecopetrol developed a Climate Risk Index (IRC, for its Spanish acronym) tailored to both current conditions and projected futures under three climate scenarios, consistent with the Company’s planning horizons and risk‑management framework. The analysis covered 34 polygons (representing 100% of licensed areas) within the upstream segment in Colombia, with the objective of identifying critical zones using national‑level information such as water sensitivity, extreme weather events, protected environmental areas, Indigenous and ethnic communities, climate variability, and susceptibility to fires and floods, among other factors. The climate scenarios used are outlined below:

  • SSP 5, which reflects an emissions pathway under a business-as-usual scenario.
  • SSP 2, which reflects an emissions pathway that stabilizes temperature increase at 2°C, with emissions peaking around 2040.
  • SSP 1, which reflects an emissions pathway that limits temperature increase to 1.5°C, aligned with the goal of the Paris Agreement.

According to the methodological application of the IRC, the Central and Andina regions exhibit the highest levels of risk and variability, including specific cases of very high risk. The Orinoquía and Oriente regions display more homogeneous mediumlevel risks with lower internal dispersion, while Piedemonte stands out as the region with the lowest relative risk—though it already shows early signs of emerging vulnerability. 

Under the highemissions scenario (SSP5), the average regional IRC increases by approximately ~12% to ~22% compared with current conditions, indicating a systemic amplification of risk across all regions. The largest percentage increases are observed in the Andina, Central, and Piedemonte regions, suggesting high sensitivity to rising hazards and/or shifts in exposure–vulnerability dynamics in these territories. 

These results correspond to an aggregated and forwardlooking analytical exercise, developed using the available information and regionalscale analytical frameworks. Therefore, they should not be interpreted as deterministic or conclusive at a local scale, but rather as an initial approximation for identifying general trends and areas with potentially differentiated levels of climate risk. 

 

Adaptation

To effectively manage physical climate risks, Ecopetrol has established adaptation plans that include short‑, medium‑, and long‑term measures across the following components 

Water resource management
Objective: Reduce the vulnerability to variability and climate change for water scarcity and floods 

Short term (< 3 years)

  • Prevention plans for obtaining water from secondary sources 

  • Reutilization and disposal alternatives portfolio 

  • Alert  monitoring associated    with official     IDEAM information 

  • Maintenance and cleaning campaigns in priority water bodies for the operation 

Medium term (3 - 5 years)
  • Water    saving    and efficient    use programs 
  • Technological reconversion plans for discharges 

Long term (> 5 years)
  • Water management dynamic model 
    Water neutrality

 

Strategic ecosistems restoration and conservation
Objective: Reduce vulnerability in strategic ecosystems for operations through conservation, restoration and recovery 

Short term (< 3 years)

  • Identification of strategic ecosystems for the protection of water supply sources 

  • Identify, structure and implementation of Natural Climate Solutions 

  • Identify Nature-based Solutions to contribute ecosystem regulation 

Medium term (3 - 5 years)
  • Projects that increase the retention capacity and regulation of water resources 
  • Natural Climate Solutions portfolio 
  • Implementation of nature-based solutions to contribute to strategic strategic ecosystem regulation 

Long term (> 5 years)
  • Projects that increase the retention capacity and regulation of water resources 
  • Natural Climate Solutions portfolio 

 

Climate resilient infrastructure
Objective: Reduce the vulnerability of Ecopetrol facilities due to the impacts generated by extreme weather events.

Short term (< 3 years)
  • Identification of facilities where floods, overflows and/or spills occur. 
  • Maintenance of infrastructure that may be compromised by landslides or mass removal events 

Medium term (3 - 5 years)
  • Engineering works implementation in the operating areas to reduce incidents due to overflows and/or overflows 

Long term (> 5 years)
  • Engineering works implementation in the operating areas to reduce incidents due to overflows and/or overflows 

 

Climate compatible operation

Objective: Strengthen operational capacities to deal with the effects of variability and climate change.

Short term (< 3 years)
  • Education and training to strengthen the conceptual bases on variability and climate change issues 
  • Increase capacity in the understanding and assessment of climate information 

Medium term (3 - 5 years)
  • Education and training to strengthen the conceptual bases on variability and climate change issues 
  • Increase capacity in the understanding and assessment of climate information 

Long term (> 5 years)
  • Education and training to strengthen the conceptual bases on variability and climate change issues 
  • Increase capacity in the understanding and assessment of climate information 

 

 

Transition risks and opportunities

Transition risks

The transition toward a low‑carbon economy may trigger political, legal, technological, and market changes aimed at meeting climate‑related mitigation and adaptation requirements. Depending on the nature, pace, and direction of these changes, transition risks can lead to financial and reputational impacts of varying magnitude for organizations. 

The Ecopetrol Group has developed energy‑transition scenario analyses to assess the expected speed of change in global, regional (Latin America), and national (Colombia) energy supply and demand. The Group uses three scenarios that incorporate sensitivities to potential shifts in economic conditions, energy policy, and the degree of alignment and cooperation among markets and institutions. 

  • Climate Alignment (1.7° - 1.8°C): Transformation to low-emission economies aligns governments and institutions around climate change. In addition, developed countries reach Net-, while other countries follow a slower path. This is not enough to achieve the global net-zero ambition (1.5 ℃). 
  • Energy Balance (1.9° - 2.3°C): Fundamental changes in governments, markets, and society set in motion a long-term energy transition, the debate continues between energy security and accelerating the transition.  
  • Climate Divergence (2.5° - 2.8°C): Dissimilar interests in decarbonization despite policy, regulation, and market changes. Global public policy decisions are insufficient to close the climate ambition gap. 

These scenarios provide a comprehensive framework for anticipating opportunities and risks associated with the energy transition, decarbonization, and diversification into cleanenergy sources. Under this approach, the Strategy not only defines the pillars of the company’s business transformation but also acknowledges the importance of integrating stakeholder expectations and advancing a just, gradual, and secure transition that balances climatechange management with economic development and social wellbeing. 

 

Market risk

Pathway
  • Changing preferences in the use of low-carbon products in the long term, which implies a risk of the Company not being able to meet market demand and not making effective progress in developing these products. 

Potential impact
  • Volatility in fossil fuel (oil and natural gas) prices could impact the company’s revenues from stranded assets, higher insurance premiums, higher capital costs, and changes in insurance policy coverages. 

 

Regulatory risk

Pathway
  • Carbon pricing: carbon pricing is seen as a key policy for energy transition, although it varies considerably between climate scenarios and implementation mechanisms.  
  • Emissions    offsets:    Ecopetrol established    an    offset    limit for compliance with emission reduction targets at around 30%. 
  • Other routes: (i) requirements in environmental license applications or modifications associated with climate change mitigation and adaptation management, (ii) increased requirements associated with regulations for the detection and repair of gas leaks, flaring and venting, (iii) new requirements for the validation and verification of reduction projects and their registration in the National Registry of GHG Emission Reductions (RENARE, for its Spanish acronym), (iv) implementation of the National Program of Tradable Emission Quotas (PNCTE, for its Spanish acronym), similar to an Emissions Trading System, in which emission rights would be assigned. 

Potential impact
  • Increasing carbon pricing also increases the company’s operating costs, with a negative variation in APS and NZE scenarios, while remaining positive in STEPS scenario. 
    Government responses to climate change could involve an increase in carbon prices on Scope 1 and 2 emissions. 
  • Regulation and sector-specific international public guidelines may limit the use of offsets, which would increase costs for Ecopetrol due to the need to accelerate investment in additional abatement technologies to meet the decarbonization target. 
  • New requirements and higher demands would increase costs for Ecopetrol due to the need to accelerate investment in additional abatement technologies. 

Other identified risks are:

  • Legal risk, associated with negative reactions and lawsuits against Ecopetrol S.A.'s climate action.  
  • Risk of assets trapped in the traditional business of hydrocarbon production, transportation, and refining, considering factors such as fuel demand prospects and asset profit horizons.  
  • Reputational risk, Reputational risk, associated with the impossibility of responding in a timely way to the expectations and demand of investors and other interest groups to establish ambitious objectives regarding climate change, which would affect the company’s image and brand. 
  • Technological risk, associated with the negative effects on the profitability of the business if there is no preparation and capacity to adapt to new technologies because of the transition process. 

For further details, see 2024 Financial Sustainability Report in convergence with TCFD–SASB standards (in Spanish) 

Opportunities

The efforts made to mitigate and adapt to climate change also create opportunities for companies, to identify and develop opportunities through resource efficiency and cost savings, the adoption of low carbon energy sources, the development of new products and services, access to new markets, and creating resilience throughout the entire production chain, will generate sustainability for the business.

Ecopetrol has identified the following opportunities arising from climate change, which are aligned with the company's corporate strategy.

 

Energy source

Ongoing opportunities

  • Use of renewable energy, such as solar, wind, and geothermal 

  • Gradual incorporation of emerging technologies (hydrogen, CCUS) 

Benefits

  • Reduced operational costs 

  • Reduced exposure to future energy prices 

  • Reduced GHG emissions and decreased exposure and sensitivity to carbon pricing 

 

Resource efficiency

Ongoing opportunities

  • Energy efficiency 

  • Efficient water management Circular economy model 

  • Reduction of flaring, fugitive emissions and vents  

  • Natural Climate Solutions (NCS) 

Benefits

  • Reduced operating costs Additional revenue cash flows 

  • Reduced exposure to GHG emissions  

  • Reduced exposure to regulatory risks  

  • Reduced biodiversity loss risks  

  • Optimization of natural resources use 

 

Products, services, and markets

Ongoing opportunities
  • Diversification in the Oil &Gas value chain 
  • Opportunities in the gas value chain  
  • Develop new petrochemical products 
  • Improve fuel quality 
  • Transportation logistics 
  • Develop new circular business models Electricity Diversification  
  • Low emission business diversification  

Benefits

  • Reduced operating and capital costs Reduce GHG emissions 

  • Improve risk profile 

  • Increased    revenues through access    to    new  business lines and markets 

  • Access to new financing sources (e.g., green bonds) 

  • Positive environmental and health impacts Improve ESG ratings 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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